On January 16, 2023 the Canadian Real Estate Association released its statistics for 2022.

Highlights below, details here.

• National home sales rose 1.3% month-over-month in December.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 39.1% below December 2021.
• The number of newly listed properties dropped 6.4% month-over-month.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) declined by 1.6% month-over-month and was down 7.5% year-over-year.
• The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price posted a 12% year-over-year decline in December.

On the same date they updated their quarterly forecast. Details here.

Jeff Slightham, vice-president, owner of Royal Lepage Signature talks about the current pre-build condo market. He states that developers are at times offering free parking, development cost discounts, mortagage assistance, etc. Slightham is in Toronto and so the interview has a Toronto twist to it, but similar can happen elsewhere. It’s also why having a realtor representing you during the purchase of a pre-construction is helpful. Remember the realtor on the other side of the desk at the presentation centre represents the developer. Your own realtor represents you and your best interest.

Yesterday I posted the Royal LePage House Price Survey. In this post from DH Canada we have an overview of the survey as well as different snapshots of details in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta. Their post also includes relevant links.

Royal LePage released its 2022 fourth-quarter House Price Survey.

Highlights:

• National aggregate home price down 2.8% in Q4 2022 vs. the prior year; first year-over-year decline recorded in more than a decade
• Prices remain above pre-pandemic levels: Canada’s Q4 2022 national aggregate home price has appreciated 13.8% vs. Q4 2020, and 17.2% vs. Q4 2019
• Greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver record year-over-year aggregate price declines of 4.6% and 3.5% respectively in Q4 2022, while the Greater Montreal Area posts a gain of 2.2% in the same period
• Less than 1% of all homes in Canada were purchased during the peak price period of February and March, 2022

Below is the Regional Press Release for Ottawa. (scroll within the window or click the link below for a full sized version)

Ottawa RoyalLePage House Price Survey Q4 2022 EN

Click here to review all quarterly reports since 2011.

The real estate sales for the Renfrew County Real Estate Board for November 2022 were down 39.1 from November 2021. Not sure why it took one month for the figures to come out but here we are. Details here.

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Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 601 residential properties in December through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System, compared with 857 in December 2021, a decrease of 30%. December’s sales included 466 in the residential-property class, down 22% from a year ago, and 135 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 48% from December 2021. The five-year average for total unit sales in December is 775.

2022 in Review
Residential and condo resales in 2022 totaled 15,288, compared with 20,289 in 2021, decreasing 25%. Total sales volume in 2022 was approximately $10.5B compared to $13B in 2021.

“Even with the normal seasonal slowdown, December’s performance was in stark contrast to the very active resale market that opened 2022,” says Ken Dekker, OREB’s newly installed 2023 President. “As interest rates and inflation both climbed, buyers retreated to the sidelines and began taking a wait and see approach. However, while it’s quieter than the frantic pace we experienced in 2021, it is now a balanced market.”

By the Numbers – Average Prices*:

• The average sale price for a condominium-class property in December was $434,973, an increase of 9% from 2021.
• The average sale price for a residential-class property was $655,839, decreasing 7% from a year ago.
• With year-to-date average sale prices at $769,623 for residential units and $453,770 for condominiums, these values represent a 7% increase over 2021 for residential-class properties and an 8% increase for condominium-class properties.

“Although market activity tapered off in later 2022, there was an immense amount of activity in the spring at high prices,” says Dekker. “This will be an important caveat to consider as we begin comparing 2023 numbers to the previous year.”

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings:

• Months of Inventory for the residential-class properties has increased to 3.7 months from 0.9 months in December 2021.
• Months of Inventory for condominium-class properties has increased to 3.9 months from 0.9 months in December 2021.
• December’s new listings (699) were 17% higher than 2021 (600) and down 56% from November 2022 (1,598). The 5-year average for new listings in December is 662.

“The leading economic force behind Ottawa’s rapid appreciation in the past five years is chronic supply insufficiency,” says Dekker. “It intensified during the pandemic as prospective purchasers capitalized on incredibly low interest rates. Today’s higher rates are slowing down building projects, which exacerbates the low supply issue.”

2023 Lookahead “Since Ottawa is made up of hyper-local markets, it is a difficult ecosystem to forecast,” says Dekker. “Plus, there are a multitude of factors influencing a changing economic environment these days that will dictate how much activity the resale market will see in 2023. REALTORS® have access to expert insights and industry resources that can help buyers and sellers navigate the complexities.”

REALTORS® also help with finding rentals and vetting potential tenants. OREB Members have assisted clients with renting 6,105 properties this past year compared to 4,813 in 2021.

* OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.